Is ther?e really a recession

Do Signs Really Point To Impending American Recession As Interest Rates Fall?

Salvatore Spaeth Macro Leave a Comment

Today I came across this story from that reflects the basic view about market conditions currently. That is, there is a recession looming.

Market volatility is back as the global economy is flashing warning signs of an impending recession. President Trump tried to save the day by delaying tariffs on China. However, China is putting out economic numbers showing a slowdown. In the same vein, the German economy contracted in the second quarter, while the United Kingdom appears to be headed to a messy Brexit affair. Signs point to impending American recession as interest rates fall

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You can’t blame the analyst class and the commentariat; all the signs are there and red lights are flashing. But … there is another point of view.

Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics explains in the video below that, due to government behaving more and more irresponsibly and being basically unable to function, there is a broad loss of confidence in the US government developing and consequently a lack of confidence in US government debt. This is causing institutional money to migrate from public debt to private debt and stocks.

This transition, as well as the flow of capital out of Europe and Asia, and into US stocks has Armstrong predicting the Dow will hit 35,000 by 2021, less than two years from now.

If you believe this, then the trades are clear.

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